Forecast Accuracy Benchmark

Period: 2026-09-19 to 2026-10-19 (30 days)

Model N Wind Speed (m/s) Wind Dir Temperature (°C)
MAEBiasRMSE MAEBias MAEBias
HARMONIE 5 km (EU)438781.17-0.351.5829.9°-18.7°0.89+0.24
MET Nordic 1 km (Scandinavia)417481.18+0.101.5921°+4.4°0.82+0.09
HARM-FI 2.5 km (Scandinavia)482161.19+0.161.6220.9°+4.4°0.85-0.10
HARMONIE-AROME 2.5km892181.21+0.121.6421.3°+3.9°0.87-0.12
HARM-DK 2 km (NW Europe)438961.31-0.481.7522.4°+6.1°0.94+0.27
ICON 7 km (Europe)568561.31-0.351.8123.6°+5.8°0.95+0.14
Zephr-HD 2.6 km (Europe)516301.37+0.051.8230.5°+3.3°1.08+0.26
ICON 13 km (World)806161.42-0.071.9431.4°+5.7°1.53+0.28
IFS-HRES 9 km (World)1039561.69+0.452.2838.2°+9.3°1.78+0.43
GDPS 15 km (World)493201.74+0.682.2941°+8.1°1.29+0.36
GFS 13 km (World)1251661.89+0.592.5348.9°+3.5°1.62-0.18
EMHI forecast9601.91+1.002.2127°+0.9°1.39-0.18

MAE = Mean Absolute Error. Bias = mean(forecast − obs), positive = model overestimates. RMSE = Root Mean Square Error. Wind direction bias normalized to ±180°. Forecasts matched to nearest observation within ±30 minutes. Sorted by wind speed MAE (best model first).

Generated 2026-10-19 09:00 UTC